This is it.
Beat England and Italy can be proud of a fine tournament.
Not many would have bet on us getting to the semi-finals. So a win would put us
in positive territory. And of course, opens up the chance of ultimate success.
Lose and it will be utter shame. Leaving at the quarter final stage after a mixed group phase would be a crushing disappointment.
That’s the fine line.
Losing to England, in particular, would be hard to take. The
jingoistic media, the lazy, out-of date punditry, the openly patronising players…
we can’t lose. We really can’t let it happen.
FORMATIONS AND PLAYERS
Prandelli will keep his opponents guessing again.
He has seen Italy play very well with his new 3-5-2, but
pick up only two points in two games. While using 4-1-3-2, Italy were a bit
shoddy, but won.
That presents Prandelli with a quandary. A 3-5-2 against
England may not be a wise choice. England have shown they are happy to try and
out-Italy Italy, by sitting back, soaking up pressure and countering. This isn’t
the quickest Italian team or the biggest, so our centrebacks are going to have
to be very good in the air and very wary of overcommitting. 3-5-2 is built for
countering, not for applying pressure and maintaining possession.
So I expect Prandelli to revert to his beloved 4-1-3-2,
allowing Italy to keep the ball, probe England’s deep back-line, and hopefully
create openings patiently or score from distance.
That means we are pinning a lot on Pirlo, Marchisio, De
Rossi and Motta to win the battle in the middle. Pirlo will need to find space
and resist the temptation to dawdle on the ball like he did against Ireland. Pirlo
will be harried by Rooney and Welbeck, so he must release the ball early.
De
Rossi must put in a crunching performance against Parker and Gerrard, with
Marchisio and Motta closing space down immediately. We need to see the
concentration we saw against Spain, without the fatigue.
Up front, whether its Cassano and Di Natale or Cassano and
Balotelli, they must take their chances and beat the in-form Joe Hart. Hart
fancies himself on penalties and one-on-ones, so we must be clinical and dent
his confidence EARLY. I feel an early goal for Italy will be everything in this
game. I'm confident we can score, let England attack and catch them out. But the longer we leave it, or if we concede early, England are more likely than us to grown in confidence.
Cassano and Di Natale must be clever to wriggle through
against England’s tight defence. They must pull them about, taking advantage of Terry's immobility. That's why this could be a game for Giovinco to come on and
make a big impact, too – perhaps winning a penalty.
ENGLAND’S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
England are strong, fast and imposing on set-pieces. That is
there biggest asset. The main worry is that they will out-muscle Italy and out-pace
them. The Italians must be extremely disciplined and ready to defend, stopping
supply from the wings, where England
look very dangerous (especially when Walcott is on).
England are gaining confidence from playing badly and
winning. Italy seem to be losing confidence because they are playing well but
still finding it hard to win.
Hodgson’s England are weak in possession and have the tendency
to sit too deep. If they play another half like they did the first against
Ukraine, I believe Italy will score at least one.. I expect England to have
periods that rock Italy and test their resolve.
I also believe Italy will
concede at least one goal, maybe even two. So we must create opportunities for
our strikers by pulling Terry and Lescott across the pitch, opening up space
for Marchisio and De Rossi to exploit. I feel we will need a goal from midfield
to win this game. It’s time to see Marchisio’s good runs come to fruition.
KEY MEN:
Barzagli. Become the monster you have always threatened to
show us. We need a Hulk.
Balotelli. He will either inspire Italy to win or hand
victory to England. I feel it’s just written that way. He will want to impress against the English, he will be burning to get on the pitch.
De Rossi. He must dominate. Scott Parker puts everything on
the line for England. Beardface must respond. He has to cut Gerrard’s legs off.
Cassano. We need one of those magical nights from Antonio.
He’s been through hell to get here. Show us a glimpse of heaven. Be the clever, cocky little bastard we have come to love.
PREDICTIONS
I am not going to curse us by predicting a score.
I openly fear England’s physicality and directness. That’s
why I would have preferred to have faced a ponderous and lazy France in the
quarters. England run like dogs and never give up. We need to match them, and
then some.
Italy usually beat teams who respect them and give them
space. England do not respect Italy. In fact, to the English press (and
possibly players) Italy represent everything they dislike about ‘foreigners’.
In their eyes, the azzurri will forever be conniving, masters of the ‘dark
arts of football’ and, let's face it, weak.
We must throw such xenophobic stereotypes back in their face, with a
confident and classy display. Although, if we did manage to con the ref into a winning penalty, that would be pretty damn sweet.
We can do it. We can. If we shake off the nerves that crept in during
all three of our previous encounters in the tournament, we can play a good game. We must be ruthless,
clinical and let our superior technical ability flourish.
Let’s just hope it doesn’t go to penalties.
What do you think?
FORZA ITALIA.
FORZA!!!!
