Stadion Miejski, Poznan, 12 p.m. ET
Well, it would have been useful to have played in the second slot this time round to see how our opponents get on, but if we bag a win, the azzurri will have taken a big step towards qualifying.
The hard-fought result against Spain will mean nothing if Italy are careless and get anything other than a win here. We do not want to be in the position of needing 3 points against Ireland. We all know Giovanni Trapattoni is a master-schemer and even if Ireland has nothing to play for - which is a possibility - he will want to knock Italy out, make no mistake.
FORMATIONS
Tough call. Prandelli will be looking at all his tactical options but it probably comes down to a straight decision between the 3-5-2 that worked so well against Spain or revert to the 4-3-2-1 that served Italy reasonably well in qualifying (against weak opposition).
Prandelli's 4-3-1-2 requires a change of personnel, which seems harsh, given the determined shift of Sunday's starting XI. However, he will be considering it. Croatia represent a different challenge entirely to Spain. They play a more direct passing game, looking to hit their strikers early. Italy's 3-5-2 looked vulnerable to runs in behind the defence, and that must be of concern to the coach.
Don't forget, Bilic - Croatia's coach - saw the game too! He will have his own strategy to play against Italy's 3-5-2. What was a surprise in the first game must either be adapted for the next.
However, with a 5-man midfield, one would hope Italy could assert themselves early, create chances and score a goal. Scoring early could help Italy massively, as Croatia would have to move forward, allowing Italy to counter.
One thing to remember, however, is that Croatia have 3 points in the bag. If they achieve a draw against Italy, they are not dead and buried. They will not bomb forward. Instead, they will play a more patient game, through Modric. It is imperative Italy win the midfield battle, keep Modric deep and transition quickly when in attack.
At set pieces, Croatia (and Ireland) look dangerous. Italy must be very careful not to concede too many free-kicks in and around the box. Modric has a stunning delivery, with Mandzukic and Jelavic happy to put the ball away.
PLAYERS
There may be calls to try Balzaretti in place of Giaccherini. I'm not so sure. Giaccerini gave his heart and soul in the Spain game. Yes he lost Fabregas once, but Spain will always break through once or twice, no matter how focused you are. Giaccerini should now be given a chance to show his attacking prowess.
Many would also like to see Motta replaced by Nocerino. Not for me. Motta is an essential part of the team. He is more disciplined than Nocerino and knows his limitations. Motta will not get caught in possession or stranded at the wrong end of the pitch. He is more tactically astute and will leave the forward runs to Marchisio and Pirlo. He stays.
Up front, expect Cassano and Balotelli to get another run out. They kept Spain guessing with intelligent runs and fine hold up play. You have to think that they will have more chances and more service in this game than last. Prandelli will give Balotelli a chance to score, I think. He wants Balo confident and he won;t achieve that by benching him.
Later in the game I would expect to see Giovinco and Di Natale. We know Cassano cannot complete 90 minutes, so we will definitely see another striker.
Otherwise, I'd expect an unchanged side, barring late injuries.
FINAL THOUGHTS
What matters most on Thursday is the points. While it would be great to play well and continue our slick countering, I'd settle for two deflected shots off of De Rossi's arse. We need to secure the win to keep confidence high, and make the Spain-Croatia game a play-off for one of the spots.
I was bulldozed by Italy's positivity and collective spirit.
Let's hope we see more of it as we face a genuine challenge from Croatia.
