Barzagli is by no means the best defender in the world, he may not even be the best central defender in the squad, but he offered a solid tactical alternative to his coach. At a time when Prandelli has publicly confessed he is considering a defensive overall, the loss of Barzagli – part of Juventus’ miserly rear-action – is a significant one.
Barzagli looked tired and immobile against Russia. However, his good work this season cannot be discounted. Personally, I was hoping he’d be like Mark Juliano in Euro 2000, unremarkable but solid as a rock.
By all accounts David Astori is the defender waiting for Prandelli’s call. The Cagliari man is a capable option, but one less likely to be called upon in the starting line-up. Barzagli’s injury makes us patently aware of the fact that Italy is simply not producing the calibre of central defenders they have been renowned for over the last half-decade. It also highlights the lack of progress made by Andrea Rannochia, who looked like the next Nesta two years ago. Now he looks like he might be the next Mexes.
Whomever Prandelli calls upon, it will probably be to fit into his familiar 4-3-1-2 formation (which at times looks horribly like a 4-4-2 without wingers). Prandelli has talked of drastic defensive changes after the Russia defeat, but with Barzagli out for the first phase, it is unlikely he will be able to move to the much called for 3-5-2 so effectively employed by Juventus.
Prandelli may be tempted to play 4-3-3, to bring some width to our game, with players like Balotelli, Giaccherini and Giovinco all capable of playing in the channels. However, this system also has a major flaw, which is leaving three men in midfield to cope with Xavi, Inesta and David Silva or Cesc Fabregas. If Prandelli does opt for 4-3-3, we might see Marchisio dropped in favour of Motta or Nocerino, to play alongside the untouchables – Pirlo and De Rossi. If so, we will lose one of our key link men between midfield and attack. No system is perfect, of course, but Prandelli’s 4-3-2-1 and 4-3-3 look worryingly inadequate just a week before the tournament. Although untested, a 3-5-2 would solve many of these problems. According to reports, De Rossi is being lined up to take a slot at CB, if Prandelli changes his approach to a 3-man backline.
So let's say the team kicks-off like this:
Buffon
Bonucci-De Rossi-Chiellini
Maggio-Pirlo-Motta-Marchisio-Balzaretti
Cassano-Balotelli
Without quibbling over certain positions (for example, I think Diamanti might be more useful than Marchisio in this line-up… and Giovinco more mobile than Cassano), this formation allows balance on the flanks as well as protection in the middle for Pirlo. This system will also urge Italy forward, when the natural tendency against Spain is to fall back. It also ejects Montolivo from the line-up.
However, there's the niggling feeling that moving 'Beardface' into defence, untested, is an act of desperation. De Rossi hasn't been a raging success at CB for Roma on the occassions he was employed there. He takes risks with the ball and will struggle defending in the air against taller forwards, so playing him there is a real gamble.
It must be said that Prandelli’s Italy have defeated Spain before without this formation and that Donadoni’s 4-3-3 gave them a lot of trouble in 2008, so it’s all theoretical. The important thing is the apathetic, sloppy play we saw against Russia is completely exorcised against the World and European champions.
